Analysis of the economic operation situation of th

2022-09-21
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Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, analyzed and discussed the economic operation situation of the machinery industry from four aspects: "the growth rate of major indicators stabilized and rebounded last year, the overall stable economic operation since this year, issues that need attention, the situation of key industries and the prediction of development trends". On July 13, 2018, the 14th information conference of the top 100 enterprises in China's machinery industry and the top 30 enterprises in the automotive industry was held in Linyi, Shandong Province. Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, analyzed and discussed the economic operation situation of the machinery industry from four aspects: the stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of the main indicators last year, the overall stability of the economic operation since this year, the issues that need attention, the situation of key industries and the prediction of the development trend

first, the growth rate of the main indicators last year was stable and positive

Second, the overall economic operation has been stable since this year

2018 is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, and the key year for the implementation of the 13th five year plan

the whole industry of machinery industry conscientiously implemented the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress and the central economic work conference, vigorously promoted high-quality development, and the economic operation of machinery industry in January was generally stable and in line with expectations

1. The growth rate of added value increased slightly month by month

the growth rate of added value of the machinery industry in the month was 8.4%:

the growth rate of the same period last year (10.7%) fell by 2.3 percentage points, 2.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the whole year 2017, but higher than the national industry by 1.5 percentage points, and showed a slight upward trend month by month: 7.0%, 7.6%, 8.3%, 8.4%

cleaning methods for the machinery industry: among the major industries that refuel the oil tank of the experimental engine, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.2%, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11%, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 9.2% year on year, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.5% year on year, both of which fell back from the same period last year. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate is higher than the average level of the whole industry

2. The output of main products has achieved a stable growth

monthly accumulation. Among the 120 main products that are mainly monitored, the production of lead screws and lead nuts as performance parts:

80 kinds have increased year-on-year, accounting for 66.67%; There were 40 kinds of decline year-on-year, accounting for 33.33%

among them, 16 products changed from year-on-year decrease to year-on-year increase, and the output of 27 products changed from year-on-year increase to year-on-year decrease

main features of products with year-on-year growth in monthly output:

(1) relatively stable growth in production and sales of consumption related products

(2) products related to environmental protection still maintain an upward momentum

(3) products related to intelligent manufacturing have a strong growth momentum

(4) infrastructure investment supports the rapid growth of construction machinery products

(5) all kinds of accessories products serving the whole machine have a general growth

3 Economic benefits maintained stable growth

the monthly cumulative main business income was 9.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%:

the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, 1.12 percentage points higher than that of national industry in the same period

among the 14 major industries, only the cultural office equipment industry decreased by 1.68% year-on-year, while other industries increased. Ten major industries achieved double-digit growth year-on-year

the total monthly accumulated profit was 605.331 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.81%:

the growth rate decreased by 7.5 percentage points over the same period last year, 10.71 percentage points lower than the national industry in the same period

among the 14 major industries, the profits of 3 industries fell year-on-year, while the profits of other industries increased. The cantilever impact testing machine measured the impact resistance of materials when impacted by pendulum. The agricultural machinery industry decreased by 11.97% year-on-year, the cultural office equipment industry decreased by 30.17% year-on-year, and the robot and intelligent manufacturing decreased by 14.67% year-on-year

4. The downturn in investment has improved

the total fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) in the month was 21604.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, and the manufacturing investment increased by 5.2% year-on-year

among them, the investment in the general equipment manufacturing industry of the machinery industry increased by 2.1%, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.3%, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.4%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.8% year on year. Since this year, the investment growth rate has rebounded steadily month by month, and the investment situation has improved

5. Both import and export of foreign trade maintained growth

the total monthly import and export volume was 181.2 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 16.02%

among them: the import volume was 79.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 17.38%, the export volume was 101.9 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 14.99%, and the trade surplus was 22.6 billion US dollars

it is noteworthy that the uncertainty of Sino US trade friction will also have a certain impact on the import and export of machinery industry

III. issues needing attention

1. The impact of Sino US trade frictions on the machinery industry

the trade situation of the machinery industry between China and the United States:

the trade volume of Sino US machinery products in 2017 was 109billion US dollars, accounting for 15.3% of the total import and export volume of China's machinery industry. Among them, the export to the United States is 72.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 17.84% of the total export of the machinery industry; Imports from the United States amounted to US $36.6 billion, accounting for 11.94% of the total imports of the machinery industry. The trade surplus with the United States was $35.8 billion

among the $72.4 billion exports to the United States, electrical appliances accounted for 26.08%, auto parts 18.04%, general equipment 16.9%, instrumentation 9.49%, mechanical basic parts and cultural office equipment 6.4%, 6.05%, construction machinery 3.5%, machine tools 2.56%, internal combustion engines 2.83%, agricultural machinery 2.21%, and heavy mining machinery 1.76%

of the US $36.6 billion imported from the United States, 41% are complete vehicles and parts, 22.77% are instruments and meters, 9% are electrical appliances, 8.58% are general machinery, 4.72% are basic parts of machinery, 3.18% are internal combustion engines, 1.62% are machine tools, and nearly 1% are heavy mining machinery and agricultural machinery respectively

the U.S. government issued a list of tariffs on goods imported from China of $50billion, which is divided into $34billion implemented list and $16billion pending list

preliminary analysis: the $34billion list involves 186 tax lines in the machinery industry, with a total import and export volume of $9.95 billion, accounting for 9.13% of the total import and export volume of the entire machinery industry to the United States. Among them, the export was US $5.082 billion, accounting for 7.02% of the total export of the machinery industry to the United States. The list of US $16billion involves 18 tax lines in the machinery industry, with a total import and export volume of US $1.2 billion, including exports of US $1 billion

in the list of $34billion, except for the cultural office equipment industry, 13 major industries of the machinery industry are involved. The relatively large trade volume is mainly concentrated in the instrument and meter industry of $2.263 billion, accounting for 22.74% of the total trade volume in the list, the petrochemical general industry of $1.783 billion, accounting for 17.92%, the electrical and electrical industry of $1.336 billion, accounting for 13.43%, the automotive industry of $1.76 billion, accounting for 17.6%, and the four industries account for 71.78% of the total trade import and export volume in the list of $34billion

the exports in the list are mainly concentrated in the industries of instruments and meters, petrochemical general electric appliances, and general basic components, accounting for 74.31% in total. Imports are mainly concentrated in the instrumentation industry and the automotive industry, accounting for 69.57% in total

basic judgment:

(1) overall controllable. The tariff increase of $50billion of goods accounts for a small proportion of the import and export of the machinery industry, and the impact is limited in terms of quantity. However, from the perspective of the industries involved, the scope is relatively wide, and there are many product varieties, so the subsequent impact should be further tracked

(2) private enterprises have a relatively large impact. Private enterprises have a relatively large volume of trade imports and exports in the list, and the impact of the implementation of the $16billion list is greater than that of the implementation of the $34billion list

(3) Sino US trade frictions may affect the export of medium and low-grade mechanical and electrical products to the United States and the import of high value-added mechanical and electrical products from the United States. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main force of the machinery industry's trade with the United States, accounting for 38% of the export trade with the United States, but the export profit is very low. On the contrary, imports from the United States are mainly high value-added mechanical and electrical products, and the trade structure of mechanical products between China and the United States itself is unfavorable to me

(4) seize the opportunity and accelerate the pace of independent innovation. Sino US trade frictions have made us realize the importance of independent innovation to economic security and put our jobs in our own hands. Relevant policies and measures should encourage domestic enterprises to purchase independent innovative products

many plastic flexible packaging information factories and printing factories have thus constituted a great loss

(5) the uncertainty of foreign trade has had a certain impact on the economic operation of the machinery industry this year

2. The space for price rise is very limited, and transmission is difficult

from the price index of May 2018 released by the National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the ex factory price of industrial producers increased by 4.1% year-on-year, the price of means of production increased by 5.4% year-on-year, the price of raw materials industry increased by 7.4%, and the price of processing industry increased by 4.4%. The producer price index of the whole industry is on the rise

in May, general equipment in the machinery industry increased by 1.7% year-on-year, special equipment increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the price index of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 0.3% year-on-year, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, which are far lower than the recovery range of the ex factory price index of industrial producers

according to the recent survey of more than 100 key enterprises in the machinery industry, 77% of the enterprises are expected to continue to rise in the price of raw materials in 2018, which is specifically reflected in high volatility or upward volatility; Another 23% of enterprises expect the price of raw materials to continue to fluctuate

as for whether the price rise of raw materials can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream, 30% of enterprises think it is difficult to transmit, and 70% of enterprises think it needs to be observed. Only 34% of the enterprises surveyed believed that they could realize the price increase of finished products

in the case of insufficient market demand, power generation equipment enterprises have reported that the prices of some enterprises' leading products have returned to the level of 2008, and power transmission and transformation equipment enterprises have reported that some switches, transformers, converter valves, capacitors and other products are highly competitive, with product declines ranging from%

it is the biggest problem in the machinery industry and manufacturing industry that high-quality products cannot be priced at a high price

3. The burden on enterprises is still heavy

in recent years, the state has made great efforts to take various measures to reduce the burden on enterprises, and enterprises really feel that they have achieved results. However, the problems accumulated over the years still impose a heavy burden on enterprises. In previous years, enterprises reported that the impact of the rise in raw material costs ranked first. In recent years, enterprises reported that the rigid rise in labor costs ranked first, with an annual increase of about 8% - 10%

our recent survey of nearly 100 enterprises shows that 27% of the surveyed enterprises have layoffs plans; 29% of enterprises plan to increase employees, mainly R & D personnel rather than ordinary employees. Taking the people's group as an example, in 2017, the number of employees decreased by 2.98% over the same period last year, but the total wages increased by 2.78% year-on-year, indicating that labor costs are increasing

in recent years, there have been one-year e-commerce acceptance bills. Due to the long acceptance cycle, the financial bookkeeping and actual entry of accounts receivable enterprises are not received, which increases the burden on enterprises and seriously affects the operation quality of enterprises

recently, the leaders of the China Federation of machinery industry put forward opinions and suggestions on current industry problems and enterprise difficulties in the reports of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the financial and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress, the Counselor Office of the State Council and other departments:

1. On the basis of generally reducing the tax rate by 1%, we will focus on significantly reducing the enterprise value-added tax rate in some basic industries and fields that are difficult to recruit workers, such as casting, forging, heat treatment, and the gradual decline of disciplines, To reduce the burden on some basic industries

2. Abolish the tariff reduction and exemption policy for imported mechanical and electrical equipment, and establish a fair market environment for enterprise technology development and product innovation. As

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