Paper stocks, which are the hottest to catch the c

2022-08-09
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Is there spring for the soaring paper stocks on the consumption express

release date: Source: futu information

paper stocks have suddenly erupted recently. Vida international rose more than 9% yesterday, HengAn international rose nearly 3%, and has been positive for five consecutive years. Cyclical stocks seem to start dancing together with consumer goods such as Baijiu

Why did the paper stock change? Is spring really coming

I. the bottom of the pulp price rises. The handle of PVC doors and windows jg/t 124 ⑵ 000 194 PVC door and window hinges are in the window of supply and demand time mismatch. As a typical cyclical industry, the price of raw material wood pulp has a very obvious feature, that is, cattle are short and bears are long, and overcapacity

at present, although large factories have sufficient raw material inventories, the global production and sales of wood pulp are in a state of oversupply. However, the last round of wood pulp cycle has exceeded the average price of 5500/ton for more than a year and a half. In the short term, the mismatch between supply and demand and the expectation of global demand recovery drive the bottom of wood pulp prices to rise

however, in the medium and long term, there is no obvious incremental demand after the demand has fallen back to repair. In addition, in the next two years, there will be new production capacity of global wood pulp (especially broad-leaved pulp), so there is no room for continuous sharp rise in pulp prices

second, the volume and price rose at the same time, and the 100 billion market continued to expand.

in the past decade, the output of household paper increased from 5.8 million tons to 10.05 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 6%; Consumption increased from 5.29 million tons to 9.3 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.8%. In 2019, the production and sales rate was about 93%. The industry formed a "weak balance" pattern, and the scale of China's household paper market continued to expand

in terms of sales of household paper, it reached 119.89 billion in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%

although the compound growth rate continues to improve, China's per capita consumption of household paper still has about times the growth space

according to the data of the past two years, the per capita consumption of household paper in developed countries such as Sweden and the United States has reached more than 20kg, the per capita consumption of household paper in Japan and South Korea in East Asia is also more than 15kg, the per capita consumption in eastern China has reached 10kg, and the structure is uneven in the East and West

with the growth of per capita GDP and the second child policy boosting consumer demand, household paper consumption will further increase in the future. In addition, the epidemic catalyses the improvement of people's health concept, which may drive the further growth of household paper consumption

at present, HengAn international tissue production capacity is leading in the industry, with significant scale advantages. Tissue business is its largest main business. The company's tissue production capacity increased from 1.02 million tons in 2015 to 1.42 million tons in 2019, significantly higher than the other three comparable companies

in terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of the company's tissue products fell to a certain extent in 2017, mainly because the company adopted new accounting standards in 2018, requiring the sales expenses to offset the revenue. Generally, the proportion of this expense in the total revenue is about 10%, so the gross profit margin of the company's tissue products can not be compared with previous years. In the future, as the company's products continue to be high-end, the gross profit level is expected to continue to improve

third, the rapid development of medium and high-end products, and the migration of product structure to high-end products

at present, the proportion of wood pulp with higher prices in pulp raw materials has increased from 71.2% in 2012 to 83%. The proportion of products made of bamboo pulp, straw pulp and other products with weak performance and poor sanitary conditions has decreased, confirming the increasing trend of the proportion of high-end paper

specifically, the proportion of toilet paper fell significantly from 62% to 54%, and the proportion of facial tissue paper increased from 22% to 29%, with rapid scale expansion. The compound growth rate of kitchen paper, toilet paper and napkin in the past seven years has been significantly faster than that of the industry. In recent years, new categories such as cosmetic towels, cotton soft towels and portable face towels have also created more new demand

Heng'an International's tissue products have a core brand, "heart printing", whose sales proportion decreased slightly from 84.7% in 2016 to 84.3% in 2019. In the same period, the proportion of high-end products increased from 1.0% to 6.7%, with a significant increase

in addition, in recent years, the company has made great efforts to develop the category of wet wipes. The revenue of wet wipes has increased from 311 million in 2019h1 to 444 million in 2020h1, accounting for 8.3% of household paper from 5.7%. The increase in the proportion of wet wipes, a high gross profit product, has also boosted the gross profit margin of the company's tissue products

IV. the industry reshuffle is intensifying. Women's high-end sanitary products and the possibility of avoiding pores in the sheath due to the effect of moisture (or moisture around the cushion) are baby diaper products. 1. China's female sanitary products have entered a mature period, and the market scale has grown steadily

1. China's female sanitary products market has entered a mature period, The market scale has increased steadily

but with the increase in the importance of women's physiological hygiene in China and the increase in the per capita disposable income, the samples that need to be tested should also be placed correctly. The medium and high-end sanitary napkin market shows a rapid development trend. According to Nielsen data, the proportion of national supermarket channel sales of extremely thin sanitary napkins in the total sales of sanitary napkins increased from 16.3% in 2017 to 18.9% in 2018, Sales increased by 24.8% year-on-year; In, the compound annual growth rate of the sales volume and sales volume of pajamas (Trouser type sanitary napkins) in the national supermarket channels reached 78.42% and 74.81% respectively

medium and high-end products will further expand the market scale of sanitary napkins

at present, in 2019, Heng'an international, Baiya shares, robust medical and Haoyue nursing sanitary napkin businesses achieved revenue of 6.49/7.5/3.2/290 billion respectively

from the perspective of production capacity scale, the production capacity of the above four companies in 2019 was 180.7/26.2/3.5/960 million pieces respectively, and HengAn international led the industry with its perfect production capacity layout

and rely on product innovation and optimization of product portfolio to maintain the high gross profit level of the leading industry, in which the annual gross profit margin of HengAn international is maintained at about 70%

in terms of ex factory price, the ex factory unit price of the company's sanitary napkins is higher than that of Baya's own brand sanitary napkins. In 2019, the ex factory unit price of HengAn international, Baya shares and Haoyue nursing sanitary napkins were 0.47/0.42/0.18/piece respectively, and HengAn pricing was the highest

in addition, HengAn keeps upgrading sanitary napkin products. The company raised the selling price of products by upgrading new products, and continued to prosper with the development of plastic processing machinery in China, promoting the high-end brand of the company. We will strengthen the promotion through title variety shows, celebrity endorsements and other means. The selection of variety shows and stars is in line with the product positioning, and the brand awareness is improved by rich and diverse marketing methods. Further improve its high-end strength

2. Diaper industry: the baby diaper industry is highly competitive, and the adult diaper market has great development potential.

the rapidly increasing market penetration and the huge infant population have promoted the rapid growth of China's infant hygiene products market

according to the data of the paper industry association, the market penetration rate of baby hygiene products in China increased from 2.1% in 2000 to 63.9% in 2018; On the other hand, because the number of newborns remains high, it is expected that in the future, with the increase of per capita disposable income and the change of consumption and childcare concepts, the consumption of baby diapers will gradually increase, thus driving the further expansion of the market

in addition, China's adult incontinence products market is currently in the early stage of development, with large development space. At present, China's adult incontinence products market is still in the introduction stage, but with the increase of aging population and the improvement of consumption concept, the market scale is expected to grow rapidly

HengAn International's diaper product "Anle" brand is for infants and young children. It has a high reputation in the second-line and below markets and is the main source of income for the company's diaper business

"anlekang" mainly targets the elderly market, accounting for a small proportion of income. As China's first manufacturer of baby diapers and the first to launch adult diapers, in the increasingly competitive diaper market, the company still ranked sixth in the baby diaper Market with a market share of 3.3% in 2019 and first in the adult diaper Market with a market share of 12.5%

summary

at present, paper stocks are generally at a low level, and the global wood pulp production capacity will still be launched on a large scale in the next two years. Structurally, the announced broad-leaved pulp production capacity is expected to increase by 3.7 million tons in the next two years, which will suppress the pulp price. Historically, every sharp rise in pulp prices is a good opportunity to clear small businesses and improve industry concentration. Stocks such as HengAn international and Vida international, which are in the leading position, may show a situation in which the strong are always strong

in addition, benefiting from the blue ocean effect of the market for high-end sanitary products for women and baby diapers, HengAn international, Weida international and Haoyue nursing business, which have a high market share, are expected to further explode in the future

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